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October 5, 2022
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Bitcoin

– Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

Willy Woo believes that the latest Bitcoin rally will not end in declines as in 2017. According to the analyst, the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will never fall below $ 20,000.

More and more data comparing BTC behavior in previous cycles showed that retail investors have yet to enter the market. A cryptocurrency may already be in a liquidity crisis.

Bitcoin will not fall below $ 20,000

It is safe to say that since the fourth quarter of 2020, Bitcoin has continued to record huge increases. At the end of September, BTC reached the level of 10,000. dollars to start accelerating sharply from October. The constant increase in prices led to the fact that in 2020 for the first time it was possible to record new ATH above 20 thousand. dollars.

However, BTC showed no signs of slowing down and, having reached unfamiliar territory, kept heading. This led to more records. The last ATH took place yesterday on Bitcoin’s 12th birthday, and it amounted to almost 35,000. USD

These events have brought a lot of excitement to the cryptocurrency community. Many people have started speculating on how high BTC will go up, or what the worst-case scenario is if the direction is reversed

Willy Woo, one of the most popular cryptocurrency analysts, confirmed his bullish position. In one of his last tweets, he assured that Bitcoin would never fall below $ 20,000 again. In fact, he believes that only a situation like the March crash could cause BTC to fall below the $ 24,000 support level.

2013 vs 2017 vs 2020 – similarities and differences

Another analyst examined the main similarities and differences between the three most significant cycles in Bitcoin history – 2013, 2017 and the current 2020-2021. More specifically, he studied their relationship to the halving that occurred before each bull market.

According to the analyst, the current cycle began approximately 150 days after the May halving. For comparison, the so-called “break point” in 2017 appeared 250 days after the event. In 2013, it was only 50 days.

Although Bitcoin’s market cap has recently surpassed $ 600 billion, the chart below shows that there is still a long way to go to record highs in 2013 and 2017:

Growth of capitalization after halving, source: Twitter

When it comes to BTC volatility, the analyst noted that the current results are very close to the 2017 data. At the same time, they are far behind the 2013 statistics.

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30-day Bitcoin volatility, source: Twitter

Retail investors and financial liquidity

The expert opinion has supported recent speculation that individual investors did not invest during the 2020/2021 boom. As reported earlier, Google’s search for Bitcoin-related phrases – which is typically a good indicator of retail investor behavior – has risen to its highest level on an annual basis. However, it is still far from the 2017 interest. Interestingly, interest in social media has grown to ATH.

An analyst examined active addresses in the chain that suggest retail investors were most active during the 2013 boom.

This is in line with the hypothesis that retailers have yet to start massively entering the market, and that institutions and whales are driving the rally.

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Number of active BTC addresses source: Twitter

The cryptocurrency is in a liquidity crisis, according to a recent report, which analyzed a huge number of investing institutions, all lost or locked coins, the hodling whale mentality and unused supply of miners.

The analyst also looked at the topic and found that “illiquid supply is growing at an increasing pace.” It has already surpassed the 2017 results and it looks like it will also overtake those from 2013.

Previous cycles reached their peak of illiquidity earlier and then gradually declined as coins moved from wallets to sale. We have not yet reached the peak of illiquidity and the growth trajectory shows no signs of weakening.

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