We have come to an interesting time when, in order to learn about the future market situation, one should listen to the most controversial member of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) – prof. Erica Lona. Now he claims that lower interest rates. in Poland they are very real.
Prof. Eryk Łon: further cuts are real
At the end of the year, the NBP governor Adam Glapiński admitted that the MPC was analyzing a scenario in which interest rates were in Poland they would be further reduced. This has now been confirmed by prof. Eryk Łon.
“(…) It is possible that after making appropriate reflections there will be a reduction in interest rates in Poland this year. This is, of course, an alternative scenario to the basic scenario, which is the stabilization of interest rates at the current level. Much may depend on various types of predictions regarding: the emergence of the 3rd wave of the coronavirus, the pace of the increase in the number of vaccinated people and the scale of the applied restrictions related to the epidemiological situation, as well as the potential economic effects of these restrictions. I hope that the need to reduce interest rates will not arise this year, but if it does, do not hesitate and definitely use this reduction in the same way as you use a well-sharpened ax for chopping wood “ – he wrote in the article he prepared for wGospodarce.pl.
In his opinion, we should not be afraid of this.
“You should not be afraid to think about a possible reduction in interest rates, because if the need arose, it would have one and only one thing: to help us all recover as soon as possible from the crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic. Of course, I am aware of some inconvenience for term deposit holders due to the relatively low interest rate. However, it should be remembered that by pursuing a mild monetary policy, we try to reduce the costs of loans and reduce the costs of servicing public debt, encourage investment, improve the competitiveness of Polish exports, save jobs” – added.
mBank of the same opinion as Łon
Interestingly, the same scenario is forecasted by mBank. “(…) The most attention is drawn to the recent statements of the president Glapiński and other members of the MPC. We believe that they will be followed by a small interest rate cut in January and the reference rate will reach 0%. “ – the bank’s analysts wrote in the report.
Let us remind you that the MPC started to cut interest rates. in 2020. At the meetings between March 17 and May 28, 2020, the Council cut the reference rate three times, by a total of 140 bps, in steps of 50, 50 and 40 bps, to 0.10 percent.