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December 5, 2022
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Congratulations on surviving the biggest drop in Bitcoin history, but is the worst yet to come?

The March 2020 “corona crash” was the largest previous, at $ 1.38 billion.

While the 13% gains yesterday brought welcome relief, uncertainty still reigns. The question on everyone’s mind is: are we still in a bull market?

Source: @WClementeIII on Twitter.com

The feeling remains raw

The events of the past fortnight have shown that Bitcoin is not immune to FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) or, as some suspect, to market manipulation. Staying steady throughout this period was a painful experience for most. But the biggest fear is that last Wednesday’s crash signaled the end of the bull run.

There is still debate as to whether this is the case or not. From the point of view of feeling, a reading of 22 on the Fear and Greed Index shows that the shattered nerves are still raw with extreme fear.

This is a marked improvement over yesterday’s reading of 10. But to say that the market remains cautious would be an understatement.

The Fear and Greed Index measures emotions and feelings to represent them on a scale of 0 to 100. 0 represents extreme fear, while 100 shows extreme greed.

A look at the daily Bitcoin chart shows that BTC is currently below the 200-day moving average, indicating that bears are still ahead, despite yesterday’s easing recovery. A close above the 200-day moving average is needed to dispel fears that the bull market is over.

BTC is trying to take advantage of yesterday’s gains and work its way above the 200-day moving average. But until that happens, from a technical point of view, it is too early to say with conviction whether the bullish cycle remains intact.

Bitcoin Graph
Source: BTCUSD at TradingView.com

What’s next for Bitcoin?

This did not prevent a flood of analysts from giving their opinion on the matter. The founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, said volatility is the nature of Bitcoin. It maintains its pre-crash price forecast of $ 100,000 through the end of the year.

I think bitcoin is hyper-volatile. That is the nature, but that is what creates the reward for people.
Again, even though bitcoin is in the penalty box right now, I still think it could come out of the year with more than $ 100,000.

Likewise, in an interview hosted by Scott Melker, the PlanB it sought to reassure viewers by saying that its stock-to-flow (S2F) and stock-to-flow X (S2FX) models suggest that the bull market is intact.

According to his analysis, Bitcoin is on track to reach $ 100,000 with the S2F model or $ 288,000 with the S2FX model.

I’m very data driven, so I don’t make this up, but I read the data, look at my stock-to-flow models, the stock-to-flow model and the stock-to-flow model X, and both models really show that we are certainly not at the end of the cycle.
We still have some space to go up to $ 100,000 on average or $ 288,000 on average if you follow the X model of stock-to-flow.

S2F refers to a statistical analysis model that analyzes the effect of scarcity on the price of Bitcoin. Critics argue that scarcity is not the only driver of the price.

Source: BTC News

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