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Credit Agricole: lifting the restrictions will not lead to an increase in consumption –

Today, inflation – according to official GUS data – is in check. However, many experts say that the worst will start when the coronavirus restrictions disappear and we return to stores in large numbers. A bank is of the opposite opinion. The lifting of epidemic restrictions will not lead to a sharp increase in consumption in 2021, economists Credit Agricole (CA) believe.

Credit Agricole: consumption will not grow too strongly

“[…] We do not expect the scenario in which this year. along with the gradual lifting of the restrictions, there will be a sharp increase in consumption financed with the savings accumulated last year. The restrictions in Poland were intermittent, i.e. they took the form of alternating freezing and defrosting of the economy. Each time we observed increased purchasing activity before their planned introduction and the fulfillment of postponed demand immediately after their completion. Such tendencies signal a limited propensity to postpone consumption for many months into the future. In addition, it should also be noted that in Q3 2020, a period when only minor administrative restrictions were in force, no significant recovery in consumption was recorded ”

– it was written in the bank report on Monday.

“Taking into account the factors outlined above, we expect that the seasonally adjusted level of consumption will be in Q2 this year. at a level similar to that observed before the outbreak of the pandemic (i.e. Q4 2019). We forecast that the consumption dynamics on a year-to-year basis will be clearly positive in Q2 due to the low base effects and will amount to 7.1%. We expect the average annual growth in private consumption to amount to 3.3%. this year against a decline of 3.2 percent. in 2020 “

– added.

“We believe that delayed demand financed by savings will materialize mainly in goods and services that are largely imported (e.g. durable goods, holiday abroad), which will limit its positive impact on GDP. Thus, we maintain our forecast of economic growth for 2021 at the level of 3.6%. rdr ”

– wrote further.

Inflation

In December – at least according to the preliminary estimates of the Central Statistical Office – inflation in Poland finally fell below 3 percent. The problem is that this could be due to the fact that today most people are saving because they are afraid for their economic future. However, there are many indications that in the second half of The situation regarding the COVID-19 pandemic will seem to calm down. Then consumers may become under the illusion that the worst is behind us and they will return to the stores, which will increase the scale of money circulation. This – plus reprinting – could raise inflation again.

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