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October 2, 2022
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Euro exchange rate around 4.50 PLN. Is it the effect of NBP activities? –

What’s next with the zloty price? The euro exchange rate fell to around PLN 4.50. This, in turn, is a level that increases speculation on the market about another intervention of the National Bank of Poland. What policy is our central bank trying to follow?

Euro exchange rate around 4.50 PLN

A lot of puzzling things are happening on the stock markets this week. Yesterday the silver rate fired. In the background we have the so-called the bream revolution, which we wrote about here. However, this is not the end of emotions, especially for Polish investors.

On Tuesday after At 10:40 the euro was traded in the area of ​​PLN 4.50. The dollar was also falling, reaching PLN 3.73. It’s still not over. The Swiss franc fell to PLN 4.164, while the British pound stabilized around PLN 5.11.

As analysts note bankier.pl, “The euro is in the spotlight today, as the decline to PLN 4.50 means that the rate of the European currency is approaching the level observed before the NBP currency interventions at the end of 2020, which decided to weaken the Polish currency. In the short term, this was successful – EUR / PLN broke PLN 4.55, and in the first decade of the month it rebounded from PLN 4.50. “

In our opinion, there is little room for a further decline in the EUR / PLN pair. Investors will probably fear that the risk of further NBP interventions against the zloty below 4.50 may be significant. Therefore, in the short term, we see a greater field for the pair’s increase to 4.56 – it was noted in the Tuesday’s daily commentary of ING Bank Śląski.

– Investors started to buy the zloty more boldly (as well as other currencies in the region) and it seems more likely to throw the NBP glove – by 4.50 yesterday only half a penny was missing and today there may be a repeat In turn, the economists of the Pekao bank wrote.

NBP interventions

As the media note, it is suggested that today’s exchange rate movements are a potential effect of the NBP’s actions.

Increasing recently the pressure to increase the value of the zloty is very worrying and very harmful. It is harmful in terms of rebounding our GDP growth and maintaining export dynamics. In view of our low inflation projection for next year, this obviously creates space for possible decisive interventions by the central bank. In view of our low inflation projection in 2021, This, of course, creates space for possible decisive interventions by the central bank. Therefore, from mid-December 2020, the NBP Management Board purchases foreign currencies on the currency market in order to strengthen the impact of loosening the NBP monetary policy on the economy – said Adam Glapiński, NBP president at the beginning of the year.

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