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October 3, 2022
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Interest rates unchanged. What is the MPC preparing? –

All frugal Poles, investors and borrowers waited for this decision with bated breath. It turned out, however, that interest rates will remain unchanged. At least so far.

Interest rates unchanged

The fact that the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) may want to additionally lower the value of interest rates has been said for some time. In December, such a variant was signaled in the media, for example, by the NBP president Adam Glapiński. Then confirmed by prof. Eryk Łon, member of the council.

However, the Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged. Thus, the reference rate is 0.10 percent. on an annual basis, the lombard rate 0.50 percent. on an annual basis, the deposit rate 0.00%. on an annual basis, the rediscount rate of 0.11%. on an annual basis, and the discount rate of 0.12 percent. on an annual basis.

As PAP Biznes adds, “All of the 20 economists surveyed before the January MPC meeting by PAP Biznes expected that the MPC would maintain the current level of interest rates in January and February. Only two centers expected a reduction in the reference rate by 10 bp to zero in March. 18 centers forecasted the stabilization of interest rates by the end of 2021, and 13 expected the reference rate to remain at the current level of 0.10 per cent at the end of 2022. “

What’s next?

Except that the lack of cuts now does not mean that they will not take place at all. Let us recall that the NBP governor stated that such a move is real in Q1 2021. It is suggested that the MPC will make such a drastic decision only in March.

However, Glapiński also emphasized that the above would not take place until the third wave of the pandemic occurs, the risk of inflation falling below the target or other such problems. Currently – at least in December – annual inflation has fallen. As for the number of COVID-19 cases, this one is decreasing in our country.

Let us also recall that at the meetings between March 17 and May 28, 2020, the MPC cut the reference rate three times, by a total of 140 bps, in steps of 50, 50 and 40 bps, to 0.10 percent.

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