Thinking of a good time to buy BTC? Who knows Bitcoin for $ 45,000 is not so far away
With the price of Bitcoin exceeding the $ 50,000 mark in the past 24-36 hours, many believe that the world’s largest cryptocurrency has fully recovered from the depreciation that has caused BTC to drop from more than $ 56,000 to less than $ 47,000. However, it is important to note that the drop in Bitcoin’s price also coincided with an increase in Bitcoin’s Open Interest, something that has emerged as a trend in recent market cycles.
With open interest in Bitcoin futures over $ 15 million, there is a distinct possibility that this may be a bearish signal for Bitcoin’s price. In fact, with cryptocurrency dropping to less than $ 50,000 at the time of this writing, that seemed even more likely.
Source: The Block
Based on the chart representing Aggregate Open Interest on Bitcoin Futures, the last time Open Interest hit a high, this was reflected in the price drop, including a nearly 10% drop in a single day. If something similar happens again, the price could drop to less than $ 45,000, based on the price action of the cryptocurrency.
A $ 45,000 valuation would be an important psychological level for Bitcoin’s price. Along with the fact that the price of BTC has historically dropped in March, almost every year since 2013, it is likely that the two may have a negative impact on the appreciation of the cryptocurrency, a recovery from which it may even take a month.
It is also important to note that analyst Plan B’s S2F and its target for the Bitcoin price do not have a clear forecast for the number of corrections or falls it will see, before reaching $ 100,000.
On the contrary, according to a recent tweet Steve from Upstream Data Inc, Bitcoin reverses the Cantillon Effect and therefore we can expect central banks to fall back to a gold standard and then obsolescence, governments shrink, insolvency / elite reductions, fragmentation of megacorps and rebirth small businesses and family wealth.
While this may be more of a long-term impact of Bitcoin, one or more of these factors may have an impact on the price of Bitcoin in the short term. Changes in central bank policy, for example, or mass insolvencies of the elite, could lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin after corrections have eased.
In addition to the predictions of the S2F model and lists of such factors that may positively influence the price of Bitcoin, most forecasts are bearish in the short term. In conclusion, Open Interest, among other factors such as volume of transactions, demand on spot exchanges and institutional demand, suggests that the price may fall below $ 45,000 or less in the short term.