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“Within 10 years, Bitcoin 40 million yen, Ethereum 400,000 yen” Crypto Research Report What is the basis for the bold prediction?

Bitcoin price forecast for 2030

Crypto Research Report, which is based in Liechtenstein and conducts financial analysis of virtual currencies, is the latest report released last week, and made price forecasts for four major virtual currencies centering on Bitcoin.

As the title suggests, a “modeling of Bitcoin prices using Fisher’s exchange equation” results in the report claiming that Bitcoin prices could rise dramatically over the next decade.

Areas where the spread of virtual currency is expected

In the report, we forecast how widespread each market can be expected based on the “total potential addressable market (TAM)”, which is the total economic scale of all use cases related to virtual currencies By doing so, the price forecast of the virtual currency is calculated.

According to the report, the total TAM of virtual currencies including bitcoin is estimated to be about 212 trillion dollars (about 27 billion trillion yen).

Virtual currency is divided into four categories: value-saving coins, utility coins, stable coins and privacy coins, and the following are listed as the fields in which effective use cases of each are expected.

Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash, which were analyzed in the price forecast in the report, are classified as value-saving coins, and Ethereum and Stella are classified as utility coins.

  • Exchange function and account unit(TAM: $126.8 trillion) Value preservation and stable coins
  • Consumer loan (TAM: $42 trillion) Stable coin
  • Offshore account(TAM: $19 trillion) Value preservation, stable, privacy coin
  • Reserve currency(TAM: $11.7 trillion) Value-saving coin
  • Saving value(TAM: $7 trillion) Value-saving coin
  • Online payment(TAM: $3.4 trillion) All coins
  • money transfer(TAM: $706.0 billion) Value preservation and stable coins
  • Micro paymentAll (TAM: $617 billion)
  • Financial inclusion for those without a bank account(TAM: $380 billion) Value preservation and stable coins
  • game(TAM: $149 billion) Utility coin
  • Online gambling(TAM: $59 billion) Utility and privacy coins
  • Virtual currency trading(TAM: $18.25 billion) All coins
  • ICO funding(TAM: $7.3 billion) Utility coin
  • STO funding(TAM: $570 million) All coins

Furthermore, the market as a means of tax evasion is taken up as a unique case.
(TAM: $600 billion, value preservation, stable coins and privacy coins)

Penetration rate of virtual currency

In order to determine the “penetration rate” assuming future currency usage in each use case, the report estimates the number of virtual currency users in the world from the number of registrants on the virtual currency exchange and the number of wallets, and it is about 40 million. Assume that there are more than one user.

In addition, the forecast was made by selecting a “modest scenario” in which the TAM will win 10% of the market. As a result, the forecast for 2030 is expected to reach $397,000 (about 42.5 million yen) and Ethereum (ETH) will reach $3,644 (390,000 yen). The discount rate for converting future value to present value is not applied to this result.

"Within 10 years, Bitcoin 40 million yen, Ethereum 400,000 yen" Crypto Research Report What is the basis for the bold prediction? 23

Crypto Research Report

What is the future penetration rate?

The report analyzed that Bitcoin is still in the very early stages of the diffusion curve, as the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2019 (1 BTC = $7,200) is less than 0.44% of TAM. It seems that it has come to the conclusion that if the penetration rate reaches 10%, it will reach nearly 400,000 dollars (about 42.9 million yen).

However, it is a price forecast calculated by considering many factors based on economic theory, but in reality, how widely virtual currencies will spread is predicted such as the regulatory situation of each country in the world and the pandemic of corovirus that is similar to natural disasters Since there are many external factors that are impossible, it may be prudent to use only one reference as a price forecast model.

Source:Crypto Research Report

Images used with Shutterstock license

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